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Creating Custom Markets
How to Create Valid, Liquid, and Popular Markets
Custom markets and template markets are denoted within the UI and the conventional wisdom will be for users to trust templated markets over custom ones. If a template can fulfill the question you are trying to create a market around, it is highly recommended that you use it.
However, If one of Augur's pre-defined templates does not cover the question or topic that you are attempting to create a market for, you can still create that market.
You'll just need to be extra careful in your construction of the market.
First, select the Create Market tab on the upper right. Navigate to Start from Scratch, and choose Create a Custom Market.
Ensure your market does not violate any of the rules laid out in the guidelines.
A market is invalid if:
- The market question, resolution details or its outcomes are ambiguous, subjective or unknown.
- The result of the event was known at market creation time.
- The outcome was not known at event expiration time.
- It can resolve without at least one of the outcomes listed being the winner, unless it is explicitly stated how the market will otherwise resolve in the resolution details.
- The title, details and outcomes are in direct conflict with each other.
- The market can resolve with more than one winning outcome.
- Any of the outcomes don’t answer the market question ONLY. (outcomes cannot introduce a secondary question)
- If using a resolution source (a source is a noun that reports on or decides the result of a market), the source's URL or full name is NOT in the Market Question, regardless of it being in the resolution details.
- If using a resolution source, it is not referenced consistently between the Market Question and Resolution Details e.g. as either a URL or its full name.
- Player or team is not in the correct league, division or conference, at the time the market was created, the market should resolve as invalid.
Augur Markets:
- Should resolve using general knowledge if the market does not have a resolution source in market question.
- Cover events that occur between market start time and end time in the market question. If start time is not specified in the market quetion, market creation date/time is used. If no end time is specified in market question, the event expiration is to be used. If the event occurs outside of these bounds, the market should resolve as invalid
- Outcomes must be unique from one and other within a market. If multiple outcomes share a common name, they must be easily distinguishable (ie. Serena Williams and Venus Williams)
Select one of Augur's three market types, YES/NO, Multiple Choice, or Scalar.
This is the time at which Augur users can start reporting on the outcome of the market. Since Augur does not have any centralized operator, it uses a system of incentivized communal reporting (the Augur oracle) to deem what outcome occurred.
Event Expiration date and time should be set an appropriate time at which the outcome of the market question will be known. If the outcome is not known by this time, then the market will almost certainly resolve Invalid.
Provide a sufficient cushion of time between the event in question and Event Expiration to help ensure that the outcome will be known by this point. For example, if creating a market on the outcome of a sporting event, set Event Expiration to at least several hours after the game will most likely end to accommodate for potential delays due to weather and other factors.
Your market question should be about a future occurrence that will take place between the time of market creation and the start of market reporting. It should concern an outcome that is objective, verifiable, and unambiguous. A market that is subjective, unverifiable, or ambiguous will most likely be sparsely traded in and almost certainly resolve Invalid.
At Event Expiration, there must be one and only one clear outcome. If none of the listed outcomes or more than one of the listed outcomes occurred, the market will most likely resolve Invalid.
If the market question contains a date and time, make sure that the date and time are before Reporting Start Time, and ideally, specify the time in UTC+0.
If the winning outcome will be determined using a specific source, you must enter the source URL or its full name in the Market Question.
For Multiple Choice or Scalar markets, you'll need to manually input the potential outcomes.
Scalar Markets have unique properties and require inputting a unit of measurement, numeric range, and precision. The Numeric Range spans from the minimum to maximum price at which traders can buy or sell shares and determines how the end payout for long and short shares is calculated. The Precision is the smallest increment in which traders can price shares.
For example, consider a market on the number of inches of rainfall in Chicago in April. If the Denomination is inches, the range is 0 to 3, and the precision is set to 1, then traders can buy or sell shares at 0, 1, 2, or 3. If the precision is set to .1, traders can buy or sell shares at 0, .1, .2 … 9.8, 9.9, 10.
Unlike other types of markets, Scalar markets are not winner takes all. The payout for long and short shares is the difference between the purchase price and settlement price.
For instance, let’s say there’s a market on how many points will be scored in a basketball game with a range from 80 to 120 points. If 1 share is purchased at 90 and 100 points are scored in the game, 10 Dai is earned per share purchased. If 1 share is sold at 90 and the final score is 100 points, 10 Dai is lost per share purchased.
Choose your primary category, secondary category, and sub-category if applicable to help organize your market within the app.
Resolution Details: Specify any further details that will help reporters resolve the outcome. To minimize the risk of Invalid resolution, remove as much potential ambiguity as possible and specify what will happen under different potential circumstances.
Consider possible circumstances that could render the outcome ambiguous and account for such circumstances by doing one or more of the following: 1) make the market question more specific 2) add more outcomes (if a Multiple Choice market) or 3) address specific circumstances here.
For example, if creating a market about the number of Twitter followers a public figure will have on a future date, you may specify here that if the individual changes their Twitter handle, the market shall resolve based on the following for the new handle.
If you cite a website that has more than one data set, specify which data set will be used, as in a specific chart, table, or section of the website.
Designated reporter: The Designated Reporter is the Ethereum address selected to initially report on the market’s outcome. The Designated Reporter is most often set to the market creator, but it may be set to any Ethereum address.,The Designated Reporter will have 24 hours after Reporting Start Time to submit a report (select a winning outcome).
If a report is not submitted by this time, the market will enter Open Reporting, at which time anyone can report on it. If the Designated Reporter does not report within 24 hours of Reporting Start Time, then they will not receive back the no-show bond. Once the designated or open reporter submit a report, other Augur users will have the option of disputing it before the market resolves.
Market Creator Fee: The percentage amount the market creator receives whenever market shares are settled, either during trading or upon market resolution. Set fees to under 2% in order for your market to show up to traders, by default. If you set your fees to zero or near zero, that may provide less incentive for affiliates to promote your market. Markets currently average around 1% fees.
Affiliate Fee: This is the percentage of the Market Creator Fee that Affiliates collect. The Affiliate Allocation helps markets get promoted and acquire more traders. Affiliate marketers share links to Augur and then collect a portion of fees whenever someone follows that link and trades in a market. So the Affiliate Allocation incentivizes marketers to spread your market.
It is essential to add liquidity to your market for users to see it. The tighter the spread and more liquidity you add, the higher your market will rank and the more people will see it.,Markets that do not have a 10% or smaller spread (for at least one outcome, if a multiple choice market), between the highest bid and the lowest offer, will not show up to traders, by default.
For instance, a Yes/No market with a .56 bid and .65 offer would have a 9% spread, so it will show up. A market with a .55 bid and .71 offer would have a 16% spread, so it will not show up.
Markets are sorted based on their liquidity, and more liquid markets rank higher and are more visible to traders. To increase the rank and visibility of your market, add Buy and Sell offers in a tight spread with sizable volume on each side.
A market must have a spread of 15% or smaller, inclusive of the Market Creator Fee, in order to be visible to traders in the default sort. If it’s a multiple choice market, it must have at least one outcome that satisfies these criteria.
For instance, a Yes/No market with a .55 bid and .65 offer would have a 10% spread, so it will show up. A market with a .55 bid and .71 offer would have a 16% spread, so it will not show up. This calculation accounts for fees. For instance, if a market has a .30 bid and a .44 offer, it will not show up if fees are over 1%.
Market Visibility: Markets are sorted based on their liquidity, and more liquid markets rank higher and are more visible to traders. To increase the rank and visibility of your market, add Buy and Sell offers in a tight spread with sizable volume on each side.
A market must have a spread of 15% or smaller, inclusive of the Market Creator Fee, in order to be visible to traders in the default sort. If it’s a multiple choice market, it must have at least one outcome that satisfies these criteria.
For instance, a Yes/No market with a .55 bid and .65 offer would have a 10% spread, so it will show up. A market with a .55 bid and .71 offer would have a 16% spread, so it will not show up. This calculation accounts for fees. For instance, if a market has a .30 bid and a .44 offer, it will not show up if fees are over 1%.
Preview Market: Get a visual preview of how your market page will look once you complete market creation.
A market is invalid if:
- The market question, resolution details or its outcomes are ambiguous, subjective or unknown.
- The result of the event was known at market creation time.
- The outcome was not known at event expiration time.
- It can resolve without at least one of the outcomes listed being the winner, unless it is explicitly stated how the market will otherwise resolve in the resolution details.
- The title, details and outcomes are in direct conflict with each other.
- The market can resolve with more than one winning outcome.
- Any of the outcomes don’t answer the market question ONLY. (outcomes cannot introduce a secondary question)
- If using a resolution source (a source is a noun that reports on or decides the result of a market), the source's URL or full name is NOT in the Market Question, regardless of it being in the resolution details.
- If using a resolution source, it is not referenced consistently between the Market Question and Resolution Details e.g. as either a URL or its full name.
- Player or team is not in the correct league, division or conference, at the time the market was created, the market should resolve as invalid.
Augur Markets:
- Should resolve using general knowledge if the market does not have a resolution source in market question.
- Cover events that occur between market start time and end time in the market question. If start time is not specificed in the market quetion, market creation date/time is used. If no end time is specified in market question, the event expiration is to be used. If the event occurs outside of these bounds, the market should resolve as invalid
Market details: Carefully review the resolution information to ensure that the market will resolve correctly.
Resolution Information: Carefully review the resolution information to ensure that the market will resolve correctly.
Validity Bond: Payable in ETH. You can get this back once your market resolves to anything other than invalid. This help prevent market creators from creating poorly defined markets.
No Show Bond: Payable in REP. You can get this back once your designated reporter (likely the same address as the market creator) shows up in time to give the initial report of the answer for the market. There is a time limit to do this, which is currently set to 3 days after the market end time.
Once you're comfortable with all of your settings, go ahead and submit your transaction.
Success! You've created your market